Calculate outs in online poker

Introducing the mathematics of poker, in this article we’ll explain everything about outs and probabilities. How do you calculate the probability of winning a hand? This math is not complicated, so do not worry.

How does the calculation of the outs work?

First of all, you have to wonder which hand you will most likely need to beat an opponent and how likely it is to get that hand. Interesting examples here are a flush or straight draw.

Then one wonders which cards will help one to match the hand match. These cards that help you are called outs. For example, if you have a straight draw with 5-6-7-8, then you can use every 4 and every 9. There are four 4s and four 9s in the deck, so you have 8 outs to improve your hand.

The next step is a simple formula: Outs * 2 + 2 gives the approximate percentage chance of hitting one of the outs with the next card.

Outs * 4-2 gives the probability in percent to hit this card between the flop and the river, ie for the next 2 cards. But these are only indicative formulas that do not provide exact results. However, the results come very close to the right probability.

Example: We flop a flush-draw in the heart and hold 2 hearts in our hand. We expect to win this hand if we get that flush. An indication could be, for example, that the board is not paired, so no one could have a full house. It helps us every heart card that is still in the deck. That’s a total of 9 pieces. There are a total of 13 hearts in the deck, of which we own 2, 2 are on the board and there are 9 in the game, we have 9 outs, 9 cards that give us a chance to improve.

So what chance do we have? If we want to know the probability of making the flush with the next card, we expect 9 * 2 + 2 = 20% chance to make the flush on the turn. If we want to know what the odds are of making the flush all the way to the river, we expect 9 * 4-2 = 34% chance to flush to the river. Of course, this first formula can also be applied when you’re already on the turn to find out what the odds are of making the flush on the river.

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